Why we should think about Uganda’s prosperity come January 15, 2026

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OPINION

By Elly Twineyo Kamugisha

Most of you will be going to the villages or the countryside for Christmas and end-of-year festivities. Some of you have not been to your country home for the whole year. Yes. It is because you have been busy serving your country, Uganda, in different capacities – in the private sector, public sector, religious, media, or civil society.

This is therefore the time to sit with your people, family, relatives, friends, and the community. In the past, this was the time to recite stories, talk about history, think about the people who left this world, and discuss the future. This was the time to share a group meal, drinks, and merriment. I think this should happen again.

This time we should sit together to discuss the future of our children, grandchildren, our society now, and the society we desire in the short term, medium term, to long term.

Of course, this time we have something important to discuss about our country – the upcoming elections on January 15, 2026. This is important to all of us.

The campaigns are almost done. We have listened to everybody by now. We have heard their performance record and have heard what they are promising.

I have made my contribution, via the print and broadcast media, during the campaign period by providing information relevant to economic growth and development. I shall vote for security, peace and stability, and for the prosperity of our country.

Ask yourself: Where are we now? Where do we want to be? How do we get there? Who is the best driver taking us forward?

I am going to restate what I have been saying in the media before today. This is because it is always important to remind ourselves of where we have been, where we are now, where we want to be, how we get there, and it is therefore important to think about who is the best “driver” taking us forward.

In psychology, it has been proven that people remember the first and last message. This is why it is important that we remind/reassure ourselves of what we have so far, and what our country needs to move to prosperity. In integrated marketing communications, we use the abbreviation DRIP. We need to DRIP ourselves about our country. D – differentiate our country from others; R - remind/reassure our stakeholders where we have been and where we are now; I – inform everybody in Uganda and elsewhere; P – persuade or attract stakeholders to our cause of growth and prosperity.

Prosperity is a choice. We need to focus on moving our society to a prosperous country level. We are now a middle-income society, but we need to move to the next level, that is, being a prosperous country, according to Uganda Vision 2040. The Government already has a Tenfold Economy Growth Strategy as a guiding document for prosperity by 2040. We need to focus on advancing our country to achieve a better Uganda in terms of economy, health, education, and above all, political stability with security.

Democracy and regular elections. We note that data and evidence on democracy show that democracy has mostly been an outcome of economic growth and prosperity. There is a lot of analysis that has found ‘no cause-and-effect relationship’ between democracy and economic growth. While a debate has never been concluded about the relationship between regular elections, democracy in general and the prosperity of countries, almost all countries that believe in democracy have continued to hold regular elections. We note, however, that democracy is good for society, but it is a process, not an act.

Regular elections are part of the democratic systems and processes. It is about the regular accountability of our leaders at different levels of government. Let us have regular elections. Let us get accountability. Let those who have been leading us show us their performance. Let those who are competing for leadership show us what they have done for us; and tell us what they will do for us. A lot has been written in manifestos and said at campaign rallies. We need to sit down and look at facts as opposed to rhetoric or general stories in these campaigns. We need to choose the right and foresighted leaders.

Leaders are the torchbearers towards prosperity. At this time in our country, nothing matters more to us than prosperity, with peace and stability. Therefore, “for the man who is extremely and dangerously hungry, no other interest exists but food” (as was stated by Abraham Maslow, author of the Hierarchy of Needs). In our case, what we extremely want is to continue to grow and become a prosperous society by 2040 based on our Uganda Vision 2040.

It is now clear, with empirical evidence, that leaders have made their countries prosperous. While democracy is necessary, leaders matter to the growth and prosperity of countries. History has several examples to show that countries that have developed and those that are advancing faster have benefited from good leaders. From Singapore, the Republic of Korea, China, and recently Uganda, and others, it is clear that leaders who pursued economic growth led their countries to prosperity and development.

A leadership which focuses and ensures security and political stability is good for savings and investment (both domestic and foreign investments), exports, tourism, and remittances. We need to note that money hates noise. Noise in the country is usually unnecessary and disturbs attention, focus and business decisions. Good leadership reduces disruptions to prosperity efforts.

Let us choose the leaders who will take us on the road to prosperity and development. For almost four decades, Uganda has realised an upward growth; with several economic and social indicators (life expectancy, maternal mortality, child mortality, education and skills, etc.) have improved over the period.

I am restating what I have said before, that in 1986, the total economy was estimated at around $3.92 billion; and in June 2025, the size of the economy is over $61 billion, an increase of over 15 times. While the size of the economy is over $61 billion by the exchange rate method, by the purchasing power parity, it is at $174 billion. This is tremendous progress. Again, all the other indicators of the economy (macroeconomic stability, revenue collections, inflation, forex reserves, commercial banking stability, others) and health-related indicators (mortality and life span; others) have all improved.

Again, it should be restated that by 1991, Uganda exported mainly primary merchandise commodities worth $184 million; and by June 2025, the total export earnings of goods and services were above $13 billion. Total formal exports of goods and services, that is, services (excluding tourism), tourism, and remittances, were projected to be above $16 billion by June 2025. Foreign direct investments (FDI) mainly in mining, transport, manufacturing, finance, and others were above $4.0 billion in June 2025.

There are also several investments of $ billions by domestic investors in manufacturing, transport, agro-processing, agriculture, retail trade, and tree planting; other agriculture projects, among others. There are no reliable figures for FDI and DDI between 1986 and 1993, but some estimates by the IMF, World Bank, and Ugandan government indicate that FDI was around a paltry $3 million in 1993.

This positive trajectory in the economy needs to continue and even improve after the January 15 elections. Where are we now? Where do we want to be?

National Security. There has been a good job on national security by the leadership. We require that our country continues to be secured from all borders – and defended against any possible aggression. Prosperity should thrive in a peaceful and politically stable country. We need leaders who can ensure peace and security because without security, peace and stability, society (households and firms) will not devote their time and money to long-term work commitments, businesses, savings and investments. History and recent experiences have shown that the longer the period of peace and political stability in a country, the better for families, communities, businesses, other organisations, and development partners.   

Access to the market, good neighbours and regional integration. As a country, we need markets. Our central location within the EAC region is pivotal to the growth of our country and that of our neighbours. The growth and development of our country is not only important for our people inside Uganda, but also for the people in all the neighbouring countries, and beyond. Prosperity for households and countries requires that there is quantity and quality production, adding value, processing, manufacturing, and providing tradeable services that can be sold and get money to look after the families, and the economy.

This is important for the goods and services from our neighbours. Trade is the exchange of goods and services between and among countries. Trade is not a one-day direction. It is exports and imports; although we need to continue exporting more, and practising import substitution, especially for those products that we can easily produce locally. We will still continue importing some raw materials and spare parts for our industries.

Therefore, leadership efforts at both bilateral and regional levels in our region and Africa as a whole should be welcomed, and they should continue.

Government relations and regular interactions with the private sector. Leadership has established a working relationship and continued engagement with the business community.

There has been constant engagement and regular meetings by the government, at the highest level of leadership, with the organised private sector, discussing how to continue to grow the economy.  They have engaged and discussed such issues as taxes, transport costs, power tariffs, and markets, among others. This is obviously paramount for the economy and society since, in a liberalised and open economy, the private sector propels the economy through producing goods and services for domestic consumption and exports, creating jobs, paying taxes, among others. We note that there was a time when leaders in Uganda nationalised private companies and distributed these companies’ assets wrongly.

Some leaders did not value investment in priority sectors like transport, energy, health, education, and security. Experience from various countries has shown that the Government can, and should, intervene in the market to stabilise the economy where there is a market failure. This is because sometimes the market, through the market mechanism of the forces of demand and supply, fails to provide some goods that people basically require. The Government can sometimes come in and fill this gap.

The government can establish and manage some strategic enterprises, for instance, in mining, manufacturing, media, and hospitality; among others. There is ample empirical evidence showing that, with competent managers, the Government can engage in meaningful businesses that support the economy and boost its competitiveness. We have several examples of France, China, South Africa, and South East Asia (Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, others) where the role of the state in the development of industry, financial sector, and generally the entire economy has been vital.

Promoting Uganda globally. We need a leadership that markets/promotes our country, Brand Uganda. Our country has reached a level where it is competing well globally as a name, a brand. It is listed in different travel magazines and other media, and CNN, among others, have ranked Uganda as one of the world’s best travel destinations.

Ask those tour and travel companies, and those in marketing. They will tell you so. We note that the Government, with its limited financial resources, has undertaken a lot of efforts to promote our country. We appreciate this greatly. We need more of this image, and promotion should continue. Uganda is different. It is unique in several aspects, including history, culture, location, flora and fauna; others.

We need leadership to continue to attract and keep investments in the country, promoting exports, tourism, and attracting remittances. We state that security, peace and stability have been key to promoting our country.

I wish you good festivities and a good day on January 15.

Elly Twineyo Kamugisha is an economist, author, professional on national export promotion and country branding; former ED – Uganda Export Promotion Board; currently Deputy ED - Uganda FreeZones and Export Promotions Authority (UFZEPA)