Global coffee futures weaken as supply surges

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Global coffee markets opened the week with renewed volatility, as futures prices slipped amid mounting supply pressures from major producing countries.

Vietnam, the world’s largest exporter of Robusta coffee, recorded a 38.3 percent increase in January shipments to 198,000 million tonnes, according to the daily coffee market analysis report.

The sharp rise points to abundant global supply, which continues to weigh heavily on Robusta futures trading in Europe.

On the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange, the March Robusta contract closed at $3,668 per tonne, approximately sh13,053,000, marking a decline of $81, or about sh288,000, from the previous session.

The May Robusta position also weakened, settling at $3,587 per tonne, around sh12,768,000, down by the same margin.

On the International Commodity Exchange, Arabica futures followed a similar downward trend as supply forecasts strengthened.

Brazil’s agricultural agency Conab reported that total coffee production in 2026 is projected to reach a record 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags. Arabica output is expected to rise by 23.2 percent to 44.1 million bags, while Robusta production is forecast to increase by 6.3 percent to 22.1 million bags.

The March Arabica contract closed at 296.55 US cents per pound, shedding 11.85 cents, while the May contract slipped to 289.30 cents per pound, down 7.20 cents from the previous close. The declines reflect broader market pressure driven by expectations of higher Brazilian exports.

Despite the global price softness, local coffee markets remain active across various quality grades.

At the latest auction, Arabica grades posted firm prices, with Bugisu AA averaging sh22,837 per kilogram, Bugisu A at sh22,759, and Bugisu PB also fetching sh22,759.

In terms of volumes, Wugar led sales with 4,741 bags of 60 kilograms each, followed by Bugisu A at 3,842 bags and Robusta Screen 15 at 2,127 bags.

Market analysts say the figures underline sustained demand for Uganda’s premium coffee grades, even as international prices retreat.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture Coffee Market Analysis, farmgate prices have remained broadly stable.

FAQ Robusta traded between sh12,000 and sh12,500 per kilogram, Kiboko between sh5,500 and sh6,000, Arabica parchment between sh15,000 and sh16,000, while Drugar coffee sold for between sh14,000 and sh15,000 per kilogram.

Coffee farmers across western Uganda have expressed cautious optimism despite erratic weather patterns and global price pressures.

Joshua Himbisa, a farmer from Rwampara, said: “Although the rains have been erratic, last season we had excessive sunshine. This year, we expect better yields. The season has only just started, and we remain optimistic that conditions will improve.”

Himbisa, however, warned that global oversupply could make buyers more selective, potentially limiting short-term price recoveries.

Meanwhile, Uganda Coffee Federation chief executive officer Martin Maraka acknowledged the current price slump but emphasised that demand for Ugandan coffee remains strong.

He said interest from new buyers continues to grow, with exporters and cooperatives securing fresh contracts.

“Despite the current drop in prices due to increased production fears from Brazil, prices remain well above 2022 levels,” Maraka said.

He urged farmers to focus on closing yield gaps and reducing post harvest losses in order to maximise returns.